However, Cyber Monday's results may not be the same as the final tally in 2020, despite its likely status as the biggest online shopping day of the year. According to Adobe's ADBE, -2.57% forecast, sales of $10.8 billion will increase by $10.2 billion to $11.3 billion this year.
This forecast came after Black Friday sales fell when compared to last year, finishing at $8.9 billion after $9.0 billion in sales in 2020. Sales on Thanksgiving Day were flat at $5.1 billion.
During the early part of the season, Adobe attributed the decline to strong sales. The retail industry spent $99.1 billion from Nov. 1 through Nov. 28, an increase of 13.6% year over year.
Adobe Digital Insights director Taylor Schreiner said online sales were decreasing for the first time in history.
"With more than $3 billion spent in 21 days in November, what we know is Cyber Week is turning into Cyber Month."
Cyber Monday promotions have declined as well. In terms of TVs, Adobe finds that the best deal is still 16% off, however prices are down 19% from last year.
It appears that supply chain problems continue, with Adobe reporting that out-of-stock messages were up 16% from the weekend of Nov. 20 and Nov. 21, but shelves are not as bare as previously reported.
According to David Ritter, managing director in the consumer and retail group at Alvarez & Marsal, "I believe expectations were low and there was a sense that stores were doing better than anticipated." Alvarez & Marsal is an international management consulting firm.
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“Some categories seem to be doing worse than others, with significant out-of-stocks in select stores—electronics, pets, and apparel.”
Ritter encouraged customers to get items on their lists as soon as possible even if the weekend wasn't as bad as expected.
As Ritter pointed out, in many of the stores he visited, all product was pushed to the ground in a bid to sell the product as quickly as possible, indicating impending problems later in the year.
Data from Sensormatic Solutions shows that trips to stores were still down 28.3% from 2019, but that shoppers were returning to brick-and-mortar stores in order to avoid problems that may arise with having orders delivered.
"Consumers are shopping earlier to ensure their gifts arrive on time due to supply chain challenges and shipping delays," said Brian Field, senior director of global retail consulting, Sensormatic Solutions. In addition to security and sustainability, Sensormatic Solutions offers automation and more in buildings. It is part of Johnson Controls JCI, -4.59%.
By Christmas, Field expected customers to use all of the services, including pick-up-in-store and buy-online-pickup-online.
"An indication that consumers are more confident about their spending abilities is the decline in buy-online-pickup-in-store use on Nov. 27 and 28," Adobe said.
Over the past year, SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, -2.78% has risen nearly 50.4%. Meanwhile, Amplify Online Retail ETF IBUY, -2.95% is down 10.8%. And the S&P 500 index SPX, -1.90% has gained 24.2% for the period.
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